Friday, January 05, 2007

The Panoply of Playoff Prognostications!

The NFL Playoffs are here and what a time to be alive if you're a fan of wild, unpredictable football. This year's incarnation of the National Football League has been harder to follow than a Tarantino flick with more ups and downs than Season 2 of "24." Nothing is scared this season. And no one is incredibly sure what's going to go down on any given Sunday (or, thanks to FlexSchedule, alternate Satudays as well). So, here are some things we know with absolute certainty going into Wild Card Weekend:

1) LaDainian Tomlinson is good.
2) Rex Grossman is bad.

That is all.

With all that in mind, here are some picks for this weekend's games, which I'm sure will ook really stupid by Monday morning.

Dallas at Seattle

The NFC is bad enough that two teams that would lose to Boise State, given the opportunity, have to fight it out in round one of the playoffs. Here's the kicker: One of these teams, by rule, has to win and advance. The Cowboys defense is non-existent. Apart from DeMarcus Ware, they may actually be playing with paraplegic children at the other 10 positions. Add that to the fact that the NFL figured out Tony Romo about six weeks ago and Terrell Owens couldn't care less about catching the football, and you should have a recipe for disaster. However, Seattle is not much better. The injured and ill-educated Matt Hasselbeck (okay, that's not fair, but he did go to my rival high school, so maybe someday he'll get an education) has looked shaky for the better part of this season with Shaun Alexander unable to pick up the slack. Despite a standout performance from Deion Branch (why can't we get players like that), the Seahawks have underperformed from their near-glorious run last year to Super Bowl XL. Still, at home, in front of the literally tens of football fans in Seattle, they should have enough to beat back the Cowboys.

PREDICTION: Seattle 17, Dallas 6

Kansas City at Indianapolis

With the Bengals and Broncos packing their things and heading home for the long off-season, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to hang on and back in (Sorry, Herm Edwards, you guys did back into the playoffs) to the AFC #6 seed. This game presents a lot of "if's" for the Chiefs, but ones that they may be able to capitalize on and win. The biggest "If" is Larry Johnson. If he's not a beaten up sack of his former self heading into this week, he should be able to run roughshod all over the Colts "run defense" and perhaps even get his name in the record books for single game performances. The Colts, of course, are second only to Dallas when it comes to a complete, uncaring lack of any sort of defensive prowess. It's surprising enough that Tony Dungy, a man who has been widely revered in NFL circles for defensive know-how, has let such a vital part of the NFL success equation run amok under his control, but the fact that no one in the organization seems to care is shocking. They are content to try and win games in track meet form, with Peyton "Hayseed" Manning lobbing bombs to Marvin Harrison 15-16 times a game and winning 45-41. But one dimensional teams, especially ones where the quarterback is a headcase in the playoffs, do not win the Super Bowl. Their counterparts, the Chiefs, know this and will, as Coach Edwards likes to enunciate, "play to WIN the GAME." Solid Chiefs pass defense should eb enough to contain Manning and Harrison at home, and force more pressure on to the shoulders of the rookie standout Joseph Addai. I have a hard time picking against the Colts at home in the playoffs, where they should be able to play "their game" the way they have for the last five years. But I'm doing it anyway.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 31, Colts 28

New York at New England

Okay, let's just cut through the hype for a moment, shall we? I want to say this loudly and clearly enough so that you all understand. The New York Jets are the worst 10-6 team in NFL history, there I said it. They had one of the easiest down-the-stretch schedules of any team in the league. Their quarterback has been playing over his head for weeks. And they do not have a solid running game, even if Leon Washington is the second coming of Terrell Davis circa 1998, like everyone in New York seems to think. Here's the straight dope: The Patriots have their own problems, and let me assure you, not having Rodney Harrison this week is a bigger blow than some might think. Tom Brady has no one to throw to - I mean, honestly, the fact that the game's premier passer is throwing to Jabar Gaffney is outrageous. And Dillon and Maroney are both banged up. All that said, there are two very vital pieces of information to keep in mind:

1) The Patriots are playing at home, where they have not lost a playoff game in the Tom Brady era (And yes, he gets his own era now. Not just as a reference point but as a sense of meaning for the league).
2) I don't care how good a team you are, you do not beat Bill Belichick twice in one season. He is the NFL equivalent of Jack Bauer. He will end you and all your hopes and dreams. And he always wins.

PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Jets 14

New York at Philadelphia

Excuse me, you there, Philadelphia quarterback - who are you and what have you done with the real Jeff Garcia? This guy is playing so well Donovan McNabb's mother is getting press because she's afraid Donovan might have to fight for his job next year. And that family just can't get by on Chunky Soup money. But seriously, Garcia is out of his mind. He, and Andy Reid (who, if not for Sean Payton, really should be coach of the year), have engineered one of the great second half comebacks in NFL history. And in an NFC where nothing is certain, they might just have what it takes to get back to the Super Bowl. The Giants, on the other hand, do not. They have one overpowering weapon, Tiki Barber, who i snow playing for his legacy, but that's just not going to be enough. Eli Manning needs to show better develpoment next season than this season if he's going to be the star passer everyone thinks he ought to be. But he's about to have a long offsesaon to think about it.

PREDICTION: Eagles 27, Giants 13

Check back Monday for a breakdown of the Tostitos OSU-Florida BCS Tostitos National Championship Game (Presented by Tostitos)

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